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Morning Star

Reversal3 candles

A three-candle bullish reversal pattern with a small middle candle, indicating the end of a downtrend.

Visual Example

Morning Star

When It Usually Fails

This is what most courses don't teach you. These conditions turn textbook patterns into losing trades.

  • Third candle is weak (doesn't close high enough)
  • No clear prior downtrend
  • Forms in the middle of a range
  • Volume decreases on third candle

Why Morning Star Often Fails (52%)

This pattern doesn't fail because of the pattern itself. It fails when context is wrong.

Location

Morning Star appears in mid-range or at resistance

Example: Pattern forms in middle of consolidation zone with no clear support below. No level to reverse from. Price continues ranging.

Market Regime

No clear downtrend to reverse

Example: Market has been ranging for days. Morning Star appears but there's no bearish trend to exhaust. Pattern is meaningless without prior trend.

Order Flow

Third candle has decreasing volume

Example: Third bullish candle looks strong visually but volume is 50% below average. No buyer conviction. Likely a false reversal.

Key insight: The same Morning Star that fails 52% of the time in wrong context can succeed 68%+ when all three factors align.

When It Usually Works

  • Forms at established support after a clear downtrend
  • Third candle closes above midpoint of first candle
  • Volume increases on the third candle
  • Gap between first and second candle (ideal, not required)

Common Traps

Weak third candle

Doesn't reclaim enough ground

Range morning star

No trend to reverse

Fading volume

Buyers not committed

Historical Statistics

Based on analysis of historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Overall Success Rate48%
At Support Level64%
At Resistance Level31%
With Volume Confirmation59%
Against Trend ⚠️29%

Note: These statistics are for educational purposes. Individual results vary based on market conditions, timing, and risk management.

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Variants (2)

Classic Morning Star

Bullish
Shape

Three candles: bearish, small-bodied (gap down), bullish closing into first candle.

Trap

Not waiting for the third candle to confirm the pattern.

Context

Reversal pattern at support after decline; gap and third candle strength matter.

Morning Doji Star

Bullish
Shape

Same as morning star but middle candle is a doji.

Trap

Treating the doji alone as the signal before pattern completes.

Context

Doji adds indecision element; still requires strong bullish third candle.

Training Note: Pattern variants are educational classifications. Real-world price action rarely matches textbook definitions exactly. Always evaluate patterns in context of regime, location, and volume.

External Sources

For additional perspectives on this pattern:

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Key Concepts

trend reversalsupport resistanceconfirmation