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十字星

反转1 根蜡烛

中性蜡烛形态,开盘价和收盘价几乎相等,表示市场犹豫不决。

视觉示例

Doji

通常何时失效

这是大多数课程不教你的内容。这些条件会将教科书形态变成亏损交易。

  • 在横盘/震荡市场中出现(犹豫不决是正常的)
  • 没有明确的前期趋势可逆转
  • 在趋势延续的中间形成
  • 没有确认蜡烛跟随

Why 十字星 Often Fails (61%)

This pattern doesn't fail because of the pattern itself. It fails when context is wrong.

Location

Doji appears mid-range with no structure nearby

Example: Doji forms in the middle of a price range, far from support or resistance. No clear level to reverse from. Just noise.

Market Regime

Doji in ranging/choppy market

Example: Market has been consolidating for days. Doji signals indecision, but indecision is already the regime. No reversal coming.

Order Flow

Decreasing volume on doji candle

Example: Doji appears but volume is 50% below average. No genuine buyer-seller battle. Market is just quiet, not reversing.

Key insight: The same 十字星 that fails 61% of the time in wrong context can succeed 68%+ when all three factors align.

通常何时有效

  • 在延续趋势后出现(衰竭信号)
  • 在关键支撑或阻力位形成
  • 随后出现强劲的方向性蜡烛
  • 成交量激增表明真正的犹豫不决

常见陷阱

盘整中的十字星:犹豫不决是常态,不是信号

多个十字星:不确定性,不是反转设置

小时间周期十字星:噪音,不是信号

历史统计

基于历史数据分析。过去的表现不保证未来的结果。

总体成功率38%
在支撑位52%
在阻力位49%
有成交量确认55%
逆趋势 ⚠️35%

注意:这些统计数据仅供教育目的。个人结果因市场条件、时机和风险管理而异。

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Standard Doji

中性
形状

Small body with roughly equal upper and lower shadows.

陷阱

Treating every doji as a reversal signal regardless of context.

环境

Can indicate indecision at key levels; often noise in choppy markets.

Long-Legged Doji

中性
形状

Very long upper and lower shadows with tiny body in the middle.

陷阱

Assuming long wicks always mean strong rejection.

环境

Shows extreme indecision; more significant after extended moves at key levels.

Dragonfly Doji

又称: firefly doji

看涨
形状

Long lower shadow, no upper shadow, open/close at session high.

陷阱

Treating as automatic bullish reversal without confirming location.

环境

Potentially meaningful at support after downtrend; noise in ranges.

Gravestone Doji

又称: graveyard doji

看跌
形状

Long upper shadow, no lower shadow, open/close at session low.

陷阱

Treating as automatic bearish reversal without confirming location.

环境

Potentially meaningful at resistance after uptrend; noise in ranges.

训练说明: 形态变体是教育分类。真实的价格行为很少完全符合教科书定义。始终在状态、位置和成交量的背景下评估形态。

外部资源

关于此形态的更多观点:

练习此形态

通过真实的 Doji 场景每日训练来培养直觉。

关键概念

trend exhaustionsupport resistanceconfirmation