十字星
反转1 根蜡烛中性蜡烛形态,开盘价和收盘价几乎相等,表示市场犹豫不决。
视觉示例
通常何时失效
这是大多数课程不教你的内容。这些条件会将教科书形态变成亏损交易。
- 在横盘/震荡市场中出现(犹豫不决是正常的)
- 没有明确的前期趋势可逆转
- 在趋势延续的中间形成
- 没有确认蜡烛跟随
Why 十字星 Often Fails (61%)
This pattern doesn't fail because of the pattern itself. It fails when context is wrong.
Location
Doji appears mid-range with no structure nearby
Example: Doji forms in the middle of a price range, far from support or resistance. No clear level to reverse from. Just noise.
Market Regime
Doji in ranging/choppy market
Example: Market has been consolidating for days. Doji signals indecision, but indecision is already the regime. No reversal coming.
Order Flow
Decreasing volume on doji candle
Example: Doji appears but volume is 50% below average. No genuine buyer-seller battle. Market is just quiet, not reversing.
Key insight: The same 十字星 that fails 61% of the time in wrong context can succeed 68%+ when all three factors align.
通常何时有效
- 在延续趋势后出现(衰竭信号)
- 在关键支撑或阻力位形成
- 随后出现强劲的方向性蜡烛
- 成交量激增表明真正的犹豫不决
常见陷阱
盘整中的十字星:犹豫不决是常态,不是信号
多个十字星:不确定性,不是反转设置
小时间周期十字星:噪音,不是信号
历史统计
基于历史数据分析。过去的表现不保证未来的结果。
注意:这些统计数据仅供教育目的。个人结果因市场条件、时机和风险管理而异。
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变体 (4)
Standard Doji
Small body with roughly equal upper and lower shadows.
Treating every doji as a reversal signal regardless of context.
Can indicate indecision at key levels; often noise in choppy markets.
Long-Legged Doji
Very long upper and lower shadows with tiny body in the middle.
Assuming long wicks always mean strong rejection.
Shows extreme indecision; more significant after extended moves at key levels.
Dragonfly Doji
又称: firefly doji
Long lower shadow, no upper shadow, open/close at session high.
Treating as automatic bullish reversal without confirming location.
Potentially meaningful at support after downtrend; noise in ranges.
Gravestone Doji
又称: graveyard doji
Long upper shadow, no lower shadow, open/close at session low.
Treating as automatic bearish reversal without confirming location.
Potentially meaningful at resistance after uptrend; noise in ranges.
训练说明: 形态变体是教育分类。真实的价格行为很少完全符合教科书定义。始终在状态、位置和成交量的背景下评估形态。
练习此形态
通过真实的 Doji 场景每日训练来培养直觉。