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Morning Star

反转3 根蜡烛

三根蜡烛的看涨反转形态,中间蜡烛较小,表示下跌趋势的结束。

视觉示例

Morning Star

通常何时失效

这是大多数课程不教你的内容。这些条件会将教科书形态变成亏损交易。

  • 第三根蜡烛较弱(收盘不够高)
  • 没有明确的前期下跌趋势
  • 在区间中间形成
  • 第三根蜡烛成交量减少

Why Morning Star Often Fails (52%)

This pattern doesn't fail because of the pattern itself. It fails when context is wrong.

Location

Morning Star appears in mid-range or at resistance

Example: Pattern forms in middle of consolidation zone with no clear support below. No level to reverse from. Price continues ranging.

Market Regime

No clear downtrend to reverse

Example: Market has been ranging for days. Morning Star appears but there's no bearish trend to exhaust. Pattern is meaningless without prior trend.

Order Flow

Third candle has decreasing volume

Example: Third bullish candle looks strong visually but volume is 50% below average. No buyer conviction. Likely a false reversal.

Key insight: The same Morning Star that fails 52% of the time in wrong context can succeed 68%+ when all three factors align.

通常何时有效

  • 在明确下跌趋势后于已建立的支撑位形成
  • 第三根蜡烛收盘价高于第一根蜡烛的中点
  • 第三根蜡烛成交量增加
  • 第一根和第二根蜡烛之间有缺口(理想但非必需)

常见陷阱

弱第三根蜡烛:没有收复足够的空间

区间内的晨星:没有趋势可逆转

成交量衰减:买方不坚定

历史统计

基于历史数据分析。过去的表现不保证未来的结果。

总体成功率48%
在支撑位64%
在阻力位31%
有成交量确认59%
逆趋势 ⚠️29%

注意:这些统计数据仅供教育目的。个人结果因市场条件、时机和风险管理而异。

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变体 (2)

Classic Morning Star

看涨
形状

Three candles: bearish, small-bodied (gap down), bullish closing into first candle.

陷阱

Not waiting for the third candle to confirm the pattern.

环境

Reversal pattern at support after decline; gap and third candle strength matter.

Morning Doji Star

看涨
形状

Same as morning star but middle candle is a doji.

陷阱

Treating the doji alone as the signal before pattern completes.

环境

Doji adds indecision element; still requires strong bullish third candle.

训练说明: 形态变体是教育分类。真实的价格行为很少完全符合教科书定义。始终在状态、位置和成交量的背景下评估形态。

外部资源

关于此形态的更多观点:

练习此形态

通过真实的 Morning Star 场景每日训练来培养直觉。

关键概念

trend reversalsupport resistanceconfirmation