Hammer vs Shooting Star: Why Location Is Everything
Both patterns have the same structure: a small body and a long wick. But they work in opposite contexts. Hammer succeeds at support. Shooting Star succeeds at resistance. Trade them in the wrong location, and win rates drop from 60% to below 30%.
Visual Structure
Hammer
- •Small body at top of candle
- •Long lower wick (2x body minimum)
- •Little to no upper wick
- •Signals rejection of lower prices
Shooting Star
- •Small body at bottom of candle
- •Long upper wick (2x body minimum)
- •Little to no lower wick
- •Signals rejection of higher prices
When Each Pattern Works
| Factor | Hammer | Shooting Star |
|---|---|---|
| Best Location | At support levels after downtrend | At resistance levels after uptrend |
| Best Market Regime | Downtrend showing exhaustion | Uptrend showing exhaustion |
| Volume Requirement | Above average = buyers stepping in | Above average = sellers stepping in |
| Win Rate (High-Probability) | 61% at support with volume | ~60% at resistance with volume |
| Fail Rate (Low-Probability) | 28% at resistance | ~30% at support |
Hammer Pattern: Success vs Failure
When Hammer Works (61%)
- ✓Location: At established support level
- ✓Market Regime: After downtrend, signs of exhaustion
- ✓Order Flow: Volume above average (buyers present)
- ✓Confirmation: Next candle closes bullish
When Hammer Fails (28%)
- ✗Location: At resistance instead of support
- ✗Market Regime: In strong ongoing downtrend
- ✗Order Flow: Below average volume (weak signal)
- ✗Confirmation: No follow-through next candle
Shooting Star Pattern: Success vs Failure
When Shooting Star Works (~60%)
- ✓Location: At established resistance level
- ✓Market Regime: After uptrend, signs of exhaustion
- ✓Order Flow: Volume above average (sellers present)
- ✓Confirmation: Next candle closes bearish
When Shooting Star Fails (~30%)
- ✗Location: At support instead of resistance
- ✗Market Regime: In strong ongoing uptrend
- ✗Order Flow: Below average volume (weak signal)
- ✗Confirmation: No follow-through next candle
The Mirror Principle
Hammer and Shooting Star are structural opposites that demonstrate the same principle: location determines success.
✓ Correct Context
- • Hammer at support = buyers reject lower prices
- • Shooting Star at resistance = sellers reject higher prices
- • Both show 60%+ win rates
✗ Wrong Context
- • Hammer at resistance = no support to bounce from
- • Shooting Star at support = no resistance to reject from
- • Both drop below 30% win rates
Key takeaway: The wick shows rejection. But rejection only matters if there's a level to reject from. Without proper location (support for Hammer, resistance for Shooting Star), the pattern is meaningless.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a Hammer work at resistance?
Technically yes, but win rate drops dramatically (28% vs 61%). A Hammer shows buyers rejecting lower prices. At resistance, buyers are trying to push through a ceiling, which usually fails. Use Hammer only at support.
What if both patterns appear at the same level?
If a Hammer appears at what you think is support, but then a Shooting Star forms shortly after at the same level, the level was likely resistance, not support. This is a sign to reassess market structure.
Do these patterns work on all timeframes?
Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) have better reliability. On 1-minute charts, every other candle can look like a Hammer or Shooting Star. Use 1H+ for serious pattern trading.
Which pattern is more reliable?
Neither. Both have ~60% win rates in their correct context. Hammer works at support, Shooting Star works at resistance. If you understand location, both are equally reliable.
Learn More
Deep Dive Articles
Candlestick Patterns for Beginners: Reading the Language of Price
Learn essential candlestick patterns from doji to engulfing. Understand what each candle tells you about buyers, sellers, and market momentum.
10 min readEngulfing on $TSLA: When the Best Trade is No Trade
Not every Engulfing is tradeable. Learn when to pass on setups like this $TSLA example that went against the trend.
2 min readHammer Bull Trap on $NVDA: A Failed Breakout Lesson
Learn how to spot a bull trap in Hammer patterns. Real $NVDA example showing warning signs and how to avoid counter-trend traps.
2 min read